Matchup+
Fantasy baseball analytics platform for weekly lineup decisions. Advanced matchup analysis that quantifies the actual edge -- not platoon splits and park factors, but pitch shape vs. swing shape at the pitch-type level.
The problem it solves
Standard fantasy baseball matchup analysis uses park factors, FIP, and platoon splits. Those are useful but blunt. They don't tell you whether a pitcher's specific arsenal is well-suited or poorly-suited against a specific lineup's swing tendencies.
A sinker-ball pitcher against a dead-pull right-handed lineup plays completely differently than the same pitcher against a lineup full of opposite-field hitters. A nasty sweeper against a pull-heavy left-handed group is a different start than against a lineup full of guys who let it travel.
Matchup+ tries to quantify that specific edge or disadvantage using Statcast pitch shape data and swing tendency profiles. The output is a matchup grade -- a single number that captures how a pitcher's arsenal aligns against a lineup's contact profile.
How it works
Pull pitcher arsenal data from Statcast: pitch types, shapes, horizontal/vertical break, usage rates, and results against different batter profiles.
Pull opposing lineup swing tendency profiles: chase rate, whiff rate by zone, contact type, pull/oppo rates, and performance against specific pitch shapes.
Score the matchup at the pitch-type level. Aggregate across the lineup. Output a single matchup grade weighted by lineup construction and pitcher arsenal mix.
Use cases
Weekly Start Decisions
Is this pitcher a good start against this lineup? Not gut feel -- a score based on how his actual pitch shapes interact with how this lineup actually swings.
Streaming Pitchers
Find the guys everyone else is missing. A mid-tier starter with a filthy sweeper gets a big bump against a pull-heavy left-handed lineup. Matchup+ surfaces that edge.
Lineup Construction
Identify which hitters in your pool have favorable shape matchups this week. Not just platoon splits -- actual pitch type exploitation.
DFS Stacking
Stack lineups against pitchers whose arsenals are weak against the types of contact this group of hitters makes. More specific than park factor, more actionable than FIP.
Status
Core grading system is built and running. Currently working on visualization and a public demo interface. The Statcast data pipeline is live; the scoring model is in active iteration.
GitHub repo