Full disclosure: I cover this team. I have a Pocket Radar stationed at the third-base line, an iPad mounted on a tripod in the general vicinity of the dugout, and a tracking spreadsheet that the team did not request and has not endorsed. My reporting on the White Sox is either deeply compromised or the most rigorously documented beat coverage in the history of men's recreational baseball. I have chosen to believe it is the latter. I have metrics to support this choice.
But before I talk about what this team is capable of in 2026, I have to say something about what happened in 2025 Fall.
The White Sox finished first in the regular season. By the numbers, we were the best team in this league. The data supported that outcome. Then we lost in the first round of single-elimination playoffs to the fourth seed. One game. Done. The team that beat us was called the Phillies at the time and is now called the Blue Jays, meaning the team that ended our season is currently being covered by a man who wore a Kraken hat to a baseball game and describes roster moves using the phrase "talent audit." I have spent significant time with this information. I have not finished spending time with it.
The analytical explanation for a 1-seed losing to a 4-seed in a single-elimination format is straightforward: in a one-game sample, variance dominates signal. The expected outcome -- White Sox advance -- was correct. The actual outcome -- White Sox eliminated -- was within the probability distribution. It was a low-probability event that occurred. This happens. I have the WAR data to demonstrate this in a follow-up feature. The follow-up feature is ready. It has been ready since the playoffs ended.
The 2026 roster is built to do it again and, this time, run the table.
Conor Keavany posted a .442/.607/1.234 OPS in 2025 Fall with a walk-to-strikeout ratio of 4.0-to-1. In an expected-value framework, that ratio describes a hitter with elite pitch recognition and disciplined process at every at-bat. His hip hinge is a structural concern I have flagged internally. The numbers do not care about his hip hinge. Neither will I, until I have to.
Zach Davis posted a .568/.619/1.592 slash in 2025 Spring with three home runs and a 2.25 ERA on the mound -- the kind of two-way output that would anchor any lineup in this league. I note this as historical context rather than a 2026 projection. Davis is on the roster for a limited number of fill-in games this spring and will not be a regular presence. This is unfortunate and I have documented it as such. The production gap left by his part-time status falls to the other Zachs on this roster, who will be expected to carry that weight without the statistical pedigree. The data is watching.
The pitching rotation presents a tracking question I have already built a spreadsheet around. Jimmy Balam comes in with a 2.154 ERA from recent GC data -- that is a legitimate number, not a hedged one, and I am not going to frame it as concerning when the data does not support that framing. A 2.154 is a pitcher who limits runs. The xCHAOS ceiling on a quality Balam start is significant. The actual variable worth monitoring is the 2.00 WHIP, which generates what I have classified internally as democratic chaos: baserunners distributed broadly, outcomes shaped by factors external to Balam's intent. The ERA says the damage does not score. The WHIP says the runners are present. Whether those two numbers converge in 2026 is the season-long tracking question. The iPad is ready.
Andrew Codding finished 2025 Fall at a 5.04 ERA, down from 7.233 the prior spring. Trendlines matter. That is movement in the right direction by more than two full ERA runs in a single season. I am projecting Codding as the most likely candidate for a controlled, process-driven rotation performance in 2026.
The projection for this team: best offensive profile in the league, rotation that needs to reduce variance, and a first-round exit last fall that is sitting in the data as a motivational variable I cannot quantify but also cannot ignore. The iPad is charged. The radar is calibrated. The tripod is in the car.
We are going back. The process is everything.
-- Max
Analytics Lead | White Sox Beat | Replacement Level Media